Improving the estimation of the COVID-19 effective reproduction number using nowcasting

As the interactions between people increases, impending menace of COVID-19 outbreaks materializes, and there is an inclination to apply lockdowns. In this context, it essential have easy-to-use indicators for employ as a reference. The effective reproduction number confirmed positives, R t , fulfills such role. This document proposes data-driven approach nowcast based on previous observations’ statistical behavior. more information arrives, method naturally becomes precise about final count positives. Our method’s strength that self-reported onset symptoms, in contrast other methods use daily report’s infer quantity. We show our may be foundation determining useful epidemy tracking indicators.